The 2018 NFL regular season is over, and so it’s time to take a look back on my division winner picks to see how I did. Since I have nobody to compete against this year, I’ll be competing against my score from last year when I get a respectable 10 points. As a reminder, here is the scoring system:
- 5 points are awarded for correctly picking the division winner
- 1 point is awarded if the team chosen to win the division at least made the playoffs
- 5 points are subtracted if the team chosen to win the division finished last in the division
Did I do better this time around? Let’s find out.
AFC North
Who I picked: Steelers
Who won: Ravens
Points: 0
There are no moral victories here, but I do feel like I was pretty close in my prediction, especially since the Steelers were a half a game out of the division lead, had the better divisional record and had the division lead for most of the year. The biggest thing that I didn’t see coming? That Flacco would go down with a hip injury mid-season and that the Ravens would be so successful completely switching to an extremely run heavy offense with Lamar Jackson under center. I thought that if the switch did happen, there would be some more growing pains similar to Baker Mayfield in Cleveland. So while I ended up with zero points, I don’t feel like my analysis was too off base. Unlike…
AFC South
Who I picked: Jaguars
Who won: Texans
Points: -5
I couldn’t have been more wrong with my AFC South pick, as the Jaguars finished dead last in their division. Oddly enough, last year I picked the Texans to win and they finished dead last, making it consecutive seasons where I just got this division completely wrong. I apologize in advance to whichever team I curse next year by picking them to win the division.
AFC East
Who I picked: Patriots
Who won: Patriots
Points: 5
Not much to say here except that it’s nice to have the AFC East to pad my stats with chalk picks.
AFC West
Who I picked: Chargers
Who won: Chiefs
Points: 1
Again, no moral victories, but the Chargers did end up with the same record as the Chiefs and I don’t think even the biggest Mahomes believer thought that he would be as good as he was in his first full season. In a league in which Brady and Brees and Rodgers are still playing, an argument could be made that he was the best QB in the league this year. That’s more than a little ridiculous.
NFC North
Who I picked: Vikings
Who won: Bears
Points: 0
In retrospect, I’m really kicking myself for not having picked the Bears. They had all the ingredients for success that I saw in the Rams and Eagles last year. I simply thought they were one more year away from being this good and it seems pretty clear in retrospect that I overrated Kirk Cousins a bit and what he would bring to the Vikings. If the Packers can get back on track, the NFC North is shaping up to be a tough division next year.
NFC South
Who I picked: Saints
Who won: Saints
Points: 5
See AFC East.
NFC East
Who I picked: Redskins
Who won: Cowboys
Points: 0
I’m going to again defend my analysis here. My rationale for picking the Redskins is because I predicted that the Eagles would take a step back (which they did) and that the Giants would suck (also true). I wondered how the Cowboys would win games without anybody for Dak to throw to (didn’t foresee the acquisition of Amari Cooper which kick-started their win streak which ultimately overtook the Redskins). It should be noted that the Redskins were leading the division for much of the early season and were outperforming expectations until they lost not just their starting QB to a broken leg, but then their back-up QB as well. I know injuries are part of the game, but I can’t help but think that the Redskins might’ve been able to hold onto the division lead had Alex Smith been able to play all season.
NFC West
Who I picked: Rams
Who won: Rams:
Points: 5
See NFC South.
Final Score
My final score for 2018 was 11 points, so just barely higher than 2017. Disappointingly, though, I only got 3 division winners right, and those were the 3 obvious can’t miss picks. I’ll have to do better next year.
